国际能源署警告市场或将爆发另一场油价战

发表时间:2021-07-15 17:03来源:中国石化新闻网

据油价网2021年7月13日报道,国际能源署(IEA)周二表示,石油市场至今已经紧张了一周,欧佩克+联盟内部有可能爆发新的油价战,并补充称,目前的谈判僵局也有可能破坏全球经济复苏。

  IEA在其备受关注的7月石油市场报告中称,6月全球石油日需求估计将增加320万桶至9680万桶。

  IEA表示,在今年剩余时间里,全球石油需求将继续反弹,原因是经济增长稳健、疫苗接种率上升以及许多经济体限制放宽。

  然而,IEA指出,由于欧佩克+僵局的持续,油价波动加剧,这对产油国和消费国都没有好处,导致石油市场紧张不安。

  IEA说:“与此同时,市场份额之争的可能性,即使很遥远,也笼罩着市场。高油价可能加剧通货膨胀,损害脆弱的经济复苏。 Covid-19德尔塔变异病毒在未来几个月可能产生的全球影响的不确定性也缓和了市场情绪。”

  已经持续一周的僵局意味着,在达成妥协之前,欧佩克+将保持8月份的产量配额与7月份持平。 随着全球石油需求持续反弹,这肯定会使市场更加吃紧。 IEA称,发达经济体的过剩石油库存已经低于历史平均水平,如果欧佩克+不放松减产措施,我们可能会看到市场明显吃紧,尤其是原油平衡吃紧。

  这家总部位于巴黎的机构说,当前的油价或更高的水平可能刺激电气化,但高油价也可能减缓经济复苏,尤其是在大型新兴市场。

  美国汽油价格跃升至7年来的最高点。 IEA指出,欧洲各国的原油价格也在上涨,全球第三大原油进口国印度的原油价格也达到了历史高点。

  “在欧佩克+生产政策明确之前,石油市场可能会持续波动。 而且波动性无助于确保有序和安全的能源转型,也不符合生产者和消费者的利益,”IEA在报告中如是说。

  李峻 编译自 油价网

  原文如下:

  The IEA Warns Of Another Oil Price War

  The oil market has been on edge for a week now, entertaining the possibility of a new price war within the OPEC+ alliance, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday, adding that the current impasse is also threatening to derail the global economic recovery.

  In June, global oil demand is estimated to have jumped by as much as 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 96.8 million bpd, the agency said in its closely watched Oil Market Report for July.

  For the rest of the year, oil demand will continue to rebound thanks to solid economic growth, rising vaccination rates, and easing of restrictions in many economies, the IEA said.

  Yet, the oil market is jittery because of the ongoing OPEC+ deadlock, with increased volatility that helps neither producers nor consumers, the agency noted.

  “At the same time, the possibility of a market share battle, even if remote, is hanging over markets, as is the potential for high fuel prices to stoke inflation and damage a fragile economic recovery. The uncertainty over the potential global impact of the Covid-19 Delta variant in the coming months is also tempering sentiment,” the IEA’s monthly report says.

  The already week-long stalemate means that until a compromise can be reached, OPEC+ will leave production quotas in August flat compared to July’s levels. This will surely tighten the market much more as global oil demand continues to rebound. The excess oil inventories in developed economies are already below historical averages, and without OPEC+ easing its production cuts, we could see a significantly tighter market with especially tight crude oil balances, the IEA said.

  Oil prices at current or higher levels could incentivize electrification, but high prices could also slow down the economic recovery, especially in large emerging markets, the Paris-based agency said.

  Prices at the pump jumped to a seven-year high in the United States. They are also rising across Europe, and reached all-time highs in India, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, the IEA noted.

  “Oil markets are likely to remain volatile until there is clarity on OPEC+ production policy. And volatility does not help ensure orderly and secure energy transitions – nor is it in the interest of either producers or consumers,” said the agency.


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